Trump Won: What now?
As of now Donald Trump has won all of the swing states. He did it by a few votes here and a few votes there, but he won it all the same. The question nos is what do we plan to do about it. To decide that, we have to face some facts.
Our support is soft: Trump has a fixed base of support. This time he got 74 million votes, last time 74. While some people changed their minds on him is was never enough to make a change. On the other hand, a lot of people changed their minds on Harris and Biden, or were never here to begin with. That is too many lost votes to be one policy or one annoying cultural battle. It will take time and research to tell what went wrong, but it is safe to say that we are not one branding exercise away from victory. Anyone who says differently is selling something.
Violence is coming home: Donald Trump's story of 2020 was always a self-serving lie. It still is, and a lot of people committed violence because of it. The cult of that lie has grown and grown as Trump called them political prisoners and martyrs and promised them absolution for their sins. He is no longer hiding from QAnon but embracing the lunacy with open arms. Tump will release his gang members back into society, not only the hardened Proud Boys and Oath keepers but also the newly radicalized. He will pardon them, tell them they were the ones who are wronged, and send them home hardened, angry, and expecting a hero's welcome.
Then they will look for revenge.
Far from the last gasp of the militia movement, January 6th will be a new accellerant as the groups will expand and fester, sure in the knowledge that compliant police, an impotent party, and even god himself will protect them, so long as they hurt his enemies. And he does have a long list of enemies.
Racism and Sexism are Ingrained: No politician in a generation has done more to encourage violence than Donald Trump. This time around he ran the most openly racist, and sexist in recent memory. He openly embraced his gangs, told racist lies about everyone from Latinos to Muslims to Africans and Caribbeans, and went out of his way to feature speeches that demean and degrade women who do not obey. Once he knew he had to run from Access Hollywood, now he basically celebrates it, and his supporters do so as well.
Some of them support it because they too are racist, sexist, or just plain mean and can finally shout in plain sight. Some support it passively because they want tax cuts, tariffs, or an end to abortion and they don't much care about anyone else. And still others support it because they sit in a bubble of self-serving lies. Whatever tack they take their support means that they have given him, and the creeps like Tucker Carlson around him their endorsement. Some day of course the bubble will pop, some day the indifferent will find themselves turned on. Some day the open asshole will get beaten down. But until that day, they won't notice, they won't help, they won't even care unless we make them.
The DNC will not Save Us: The Democratic party, is DC-Centric, Consultant-Driven, Comfortable, and old. The Harris campaign was run by the best in the business. It was energetic, centrist, star-studded, expensive, and ineffective. But none of the people who ran it have a reason to care because win or lose, nothing bad will happen to them, and they all still got paid. The house is still gerrymandered, the senate is still bought, and winnable voters slip away. So what does act blue really get us?
The problem though, is not only the consultants or the campaign. Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and yes Merrick Garland have governed as if time is on their side. The Republicans have gone reactionary, the planet is on fire, Criminals plot revenge and the courts are stacked against people yet they fritter, talk nice, and wait for "the fever to break." Until that changes, nothing good will come.
Republicans will not slow this down: The Republican party is dead. Six times now the party has had the chance to turn the page on Trump, each and every time, they have demanded to stay. For at least ten years the values voters, the fiscal conservatives, the sober business people, and the small `l' libertarians have known who and what he is. Their adulation has never changed. The "party of law" makes excuses for a felon who calls to terminate the constitution and the "party of family values" worships a pussy grabber. Say what you will about the plutocrats they are clear that they only want tax cuts, and to hell with everything else.
Now the only officials left are Trump family, craven opportunists like Miller, True believers like Rhodes, and self-gelded placeholders like McConnell and Cruz. All others have fallen out, or fallen happily in line, policy and principles be damned. Based on the exit polls the "Normal" Republicans that Harris pinned her election hopes on, looked again at who they were in bed with, and decided to stay.
Big Tech Won: No one, no one, won more on Tuesday than Elon Musk. In exchange for a 250 million investment he has already reaped billions from bitcoin surges, and will reap far more once Trump cuts his business taxes back from at least 15% (thanks to Biden) back down to 0, or below. Each government regulator he takes out, each no-bid contract or privatization option he creates will make him richer and richer, and richer, and leave working people paying the tab. Big tech, Big Oil, even big Pharma will get payoffs as Trump kills consumer protection, guts environmental standards, and terminates drug price negotiation to pay off the favors he owes. America will end up hotter, sicker, and more unequal as a result.
Trump is Weak, that is why he is dangerous: For all his bluster, Donald Trump remains a truly weak man. He is easily distracted, manipulated by flattery, addled and incoherent in debate, petulant when questioned, and bullying when he is not terrified. He launched the insurrection because he could not take a loss like a man and by now the whole world knows his character. He is surrounded by lobbyists, grifters, flatterers, and creeps all of whom know that they can play on his fears, fluff his ego, and lead him wherever they want to go.
Trump is not a leader who will restrain them, Trump is owned and will be led.
So what do we do?:
There is no simple answer to this. I sure as hell won't pretend to have one. But one thing is clear. We have to fight, fight for our communities, fight for our families, and fight for the future, or else none of the above matters.
While Donald Trump practices the politics of narcissism, it is community that sustains us, and it will be our communities that are hardest hit. Economic shocks will hit the poor, the working class, and the vulnerable. Social attacks will hit, the odd, the marginalized, and the women. Threats of federal punishment, and "rough hours" will hit cities, and immigrants. The only way to survive these shocks is through community. Through real offline links between neighbors, within organizations, and across towns. These kind of links will allow us to share honest information in times of lies, and to hold one another up when they single us out. They will help us to mobilize in the face of threats and eventually to turn out votes in a way that star-studded rallies and hashtags never will.
Key to these communities is our families, both the genetic and the found. It is through these connections that we have our greatest impact both in shielding those who would be harmed, and changing the minds of those who support it. We *all* have family that backed Trump's elections. They need to know just what it is they are supporting, and just how close to home the pain will come. We don't have to shun them, indeed doing so will just push them deeper into his arms. But, we have to draw a line and to make plain just how wrong his views and policies are.
Most of the people who support racism don't think they are racists, most of the sexists think it is all in good fun. And if a stranger calls them on it they ignore it, in the certain knowledge that they are kind, generous, and good. But if a daughter explains how pussy grabbing degrades her; If a father tells a grandfather how cuts to education or the environment will wreak havoc on his grandchildren; If a friend tells a friend how he got played by Elon Musk; then they may, just may, change their minds.
This work is the hardest, and most necessary, for the young. Donald Trump ran a bro campaign. He sold his brand of sexism, nativism, gleeful threats and "crazy shit" to leagues of young men who want to follow in his wake. And through him and through twitter they are passed from influencer to influencer until they think that his gilt crudities are the true mark of success. The more they absorb these toxic lessons and parrot the foul memes, the more they skip thinking and ride the tide of hatred to an ugly end. Older creeps in our lives may be unsavable, but these young men need help now. They need to hear from their fathers and uncles, mothers and aunts, sisters, cousins, and yes, their friends, just how much damage this toxicity can cause. We owe it to them, to their sisters, and to their generation to turn them away.
If we can do this, if they can learn not to blame their problems on others, not to bully, manipulate, not to nurse grievances or just plain whine, then they can grow up to be the kind of men who solve real problems, who support others, and make the world a better place. If we do not, if they stay hooked on the drug of narcissism, then the future may truly be lost.
And make no mistake, this *is* about the future. Global warming will kill us all. Inequality is out of control. And our political institutions are so stacked against us that they tie our hands and empower the reactionaries. We face existential problems and failure is not an option. Harris and Biden's campaigns failed but they are right that we *cannot* go back. But we also cannot go forward until we have defined the path. We must build a vision for the future we need. We must define a culture of responsible liberty, of responsive government, of pragmatism, and sustainability, and we need to really fight for it against all comers.